Lauren Boebert trails challenger Adam Frisch by 2 points, Dem's internal poll shows

Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert trails her Democratic challenger Adam Frisch by 2 percentage points, according to a new internal poll of likely voters released Tuesday by a Democratic firm.

Frisch, the former Aspen City Council member who came within fewer than 600 votes of unseating Boebert last year, leads the incumbent 50% to 48% in Colorado's Republican-leaning 3rd Congressional District, pollster Keating Research found. Fewer than 2% of likely voters said they didn't know or were undecided.

Chris Keating, founder of the Colorado-based polling firm, told reporters that he's never seen so few undecided voters this far out from an election.

The difference between Frisch and Boebert is within the poll's 3.5 percentage point margin of error. The telephone survey of 801 likely voters was conducted Aug. 8-15, Keating said in a polling memo.

It's the first publicly released poll this cycle to show Frisch in the lead in the district, which covers most of the Western Slope and parts of southern Colorado, including Pueblo County and the San Luis Valley.

Another poll released by Democratic firm Global Strategy Group in April showed the race tied, with Boebert and Frisch each receiving 45% support.

The new poll found Frisch leading Boebert among the district's unaffiliated voters by 17 percentage points and holding a 32-point lead among Latino voters. Unaffiliated voters will make up 42% of the district's electorate next year, and Latino voters will make up 15%, according to Keating's projections.

Keating said Frisch leads among nearly every demographic group except registered Republicans, who made up 33% of the sample.

Republicans hold an 8 percentage point lead in registration in the district. In recent elections, the seat's electorate has tipped toward major Republican nominees by 9 percentage points.

The pollster found that the district's voters still lean Republican in the presidential race. Former President Donald Trump polled 5 percentage points ahead of President Joe Biden in the same survey, 49% to 44%, with 4% saying they wanted someone else and 3% undecided.

Keating, whose firm was the only pollster to predict that Boebert's reelection bid would be close last year, said the new survey found the incumbent's favorability rating is upside down, with 53% of voters saying they hold an unfavorable view of her and 42% with a favorable view.

That compares to 34% with a favorable view of Frisch and 26% saying they view the challenger unfavorably.

"She's already starting down," Keating said. "She's paying the price for her extreme rhetoric, across the board."

He added that it's unusual that 60% of the voters surveyed had an opinion about Frisch since voters aren't usually that familiar with congressional challengers.

Frisch, one of five Democrats seeking the 2024 nomination, launched his bid for a rematch in February and has since set off-year fundraising records for a Colorado congressional candidate, including raising more than three times as much in contributions as Boebert reported in the last fundraising period.

Election forecasters at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report list the seat as a toss-up, citing Frisch's fundraising haul and Boebert's confrontational approach to politics.

“With this new poll showing us ahead of Lauren Boebert, I am more confident than ever that we are on track to win in 2024,” Frisch said in a statement.

He added that the results tell him that "voters in this district are tired of Boebert’s extremism and want a representative who delivers common sense solutions for their families, their businesses, and their communities.”

Boebert campaign manager Drew Sexton told Colorado Politics in a text message: “For the poll to have any relevance Aspen Adam needs to secure the Democrat nomination, which he only won by a couple hundred votes last time.”

“This primary he’ll have to explain whether he’s lying to liberals or lying to conservatives about his policies," Sexton added. "So far, Adam has proven he’s lying to both.”

Other Democrats running include Grand Junction Mayor Anna Stout, Gunnison veterinarian Debby Burnett and first-time candidates David Karpas and Adam Withrow.

Boebert drew a primary challenge last week from Grand Junction attorney Jeff Hurd, a former chairman of the local chamber of commerce and first-time candidate.

Editor's note: This developing story has been updated.